Emmy nominations, or How here are my picks!

Full list of nominees (sans technical awards, and sans TV Movies and Mini-series cause... I don't keep up with those) and my picks (in RED) with alternates (in BLUE) of who WILL win (not should, that's what the commentary is all about).

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Curb Your Enthusiasm • HBO
  
• Glee • FOX
• Modern Family • ABC
  
• Nurse Jackie • Showtime
  
• The Office • NBC
  
• 30 Rock • NBC
  

30 Rock continues to be, for me, the greatest comedy on TV. This past season may not have been its strongest, but its best episodes still leave other comedies in the dust. Glee and Modern Family are clearly its greatest threats. The former riding a wave of "OMGITSTHEBESTTHINGINTHEWORLD" that somehow doesn't acknowledge that for all the pomp and innovation it is bringing to TV, it really has some flaws it needs to work on to become as pitch-perfect as the pilot suggested it would be. My alternate vote goes instead to the most "traditional" of the nominees (it's a family! they're funny!) but its ensemble is so spectacular that it really brings laughs home week after week (which Glee, give or take a one-liner, doesn't as consistently).

Dark Horse: Nurse Jackie (They love them some Falco and the show is strong, if a bit dramatic for this category)

Outstanding Drama Series

• Breaking Bad • AMC
• Dexter • Showtime
  
• The Good Wife • CBS
  
• Lost • ABC
  
• Mad Men • AMC
  
• True Blood • HBO

I really am a Comedy person when it comes to TV so here I'll root for the close to perfect third season of Matthew Wiener's period drama. Mad Men's third season completely changed up the rules of the game and ended in such a well-orchestrated re-jiggering of the series, that it's hard to root against it. My alternate vote goes for CBS's hit show with a slew of strong performances that quickly rose above its expectations.

Dark Horse: Lost (will they want to hug it good-bye despite its baffling ending?)

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

• The Big Bang Theory • CBS • Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper
• Curb Your Enthusiasm • HBO • Larry David as Himself
• Glee • FOX • Matthew Morrison as Will Schuester
• Monk • USA • Shalhoub as Adrian Monk
• The Office • NBC • Steve Carell as Michael Scott
• 30 Rock • NBC • Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy

Can anyone beat Baldwin? The latter half of the season relied heavily on his great on-screen chemistry with Elizabeth Banks and Julianne Moore and he did a great job with it. If there's one person to watch out for it's Jim Parsons who's been slowly but steadily building a strong comedic character.

Dark Horse: Tony Shalhoub (Monk) because inexplicably, they love love love love him.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

• Breaking Bad • AMC • Bryan Cranston as Walter White
• Dexter • Showtime • Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan
• Friday Night Lights • DirecTV • Kyle Chandler as Eric Taylor
• House • FOX • Hugh Laurie as Dr. Gregory House
• Lost • ABC • Matthew Fox as Jack Shephard
• Mad Men • AMC • Jon Hamm as Don Draper

I'm guessing Emmys (who love repeat winners) will go again where they've gone before and award a third Emmy to Bryan Cranston for his chilling performance in Breaking Bad. My alternate (and personal) vote goes to Jon Hamm's whose three season of Mad Men have been a master class in acting subtly and building a layered and troubled Don Draper.

Dark Horse(s): Hugh Laurie (House) and Michael C. Hall (Dexter), can either of these returning nominees break the spell and manage a well-deserved win?

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

• Glee • FOX • Lea Michele as Rachel Berry
• The New Adventures Of Old Christine • CBS • Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Christine Campbell
• Nurse Jackie • Showtime • Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton
• Parks And Recreation • NBC • Poehler as Leslie Knope
• 30 Rock • NBC • Tina Fey as Liz Lemon
• United States Of Tara • Showtime • Toni Collette as Tara Gregson

I'd normally say they'll go with Colette again, but history in this category suggests they like to mix it up (they've awarded it to a different actress for the past 9 years). I give the edge to Falco who's superb (if not laugh out loud funny) in Nurse Jackie, though Fey and Colette will definitely be in the running (there, I give the edge to Fey as Colette's role this past season was again, more dramatic and less "alter-ful" than last season).

Dark Horse: Lea Michele (Glee), if they REALLY wanna go Glee-crazy.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

• The Closer • TNT • Kyra Sedgwick as Deputy Chief Brenda Johnson
• Damages • FX Networks • Glenn Close as Patty Hewes
• Friday Night Lights • DirecTV • Connie Britton as Tami Taylor
• The Good Wife • CBS • Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick
• Law & Order: Special Victims Unit • NBC • Mariska Hargitay as Det. Olivia Benson
• Mad Men • AMC • January Jones as Betty Draper

While I'd love to see January Jones picking up an Emmy, this is definitely a battle between Emmy favorite Marguiles and Emmy past champ Close. I'll give the edge to Marguiles since the Emmys tend to not award main trophies to cancelled shows (give or take a Cheno).

Dark Horse: January Jones (Mad Men)

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

• Glee • FOX • Chris Colfer as Kurt Hummel
• How I Met Your Mother • CBS • Neil Patrick Harris as Barney Stinson
• Modern Family • ABC • Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell
• Modern Family • ABC • Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker
• Modern Family • ABC • Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy
• Two And A Half Men • CBS • Jon Cryer as Alan Harper

Probably the hardest category to nail. Anyone of these guys could win, but I'm guessing they'll either finally embrace NPH or give it to one of the Modern Family boys. Right now I'm leaning for Eric Stonestreet since he has the showier role of the three (and the most huggable/lovable).

Dark Horse: Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men) since Emmys love repeat winners in this category coughPivencough.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

• Breaking Bad • AMC • Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman
• Damages • FX Networks • Martin Short as Leonard Winstone
• Lost • ABC • Terry O’Quinn as John Locke
• Lost • ABC • Michael Emerson as Ben Linus
• Mad Men • AMC • Slattery as Roger Sterling
• Men Of A Certain Age • TNT • Andre Braugher as Owen

Since I don't watch many of these shows, I'm gonna assume they'll want to throw LOST some love and this is where to do it, awarding Emerson again, or give Paul a matching Emmy for his work with Cranston on Breaking Bad.

Dark Horse: Martin Short (Damages) since the Emmys love actors playing against type.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

• Glee • FOX • Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester
• Modern Family • ABC • Bowen as Claire Dunphy
• Modern Family • ABC • Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett
• Saturday Night Live • NBC • Kristen Wiig as Various Characters
• 30 Rock • NBC • Jane Krakowski as Jenna Maroney
• Two And A Half Men • CBS • Holland Taylor as Evelyn Harper

Is this even a contest? Lynch has this statuette already engraved. If anyone is a real threat, it is... I actually don't know: would they want to give Modern Family matching Supporting Actor/Actress statuettes or would they finally see what great work Jane and Kristin have been doing for their respective shows? I don't know.

Dark Horse: ... No idea.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

• Burn Notice • USA • Sharon Gless as Madeline Westen
• Damages • FX Networks • Rose Byrne as Ellen Parsons
• The Good Wife • CBS • Archie Panjabi as Kalinda Sharma
• The Good Wife • CBS • Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart
• Mad Men • AMC • Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris
• Mad Men • AMC • Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but Hendricks' work this past season was great (while Moss was given less to do, though she did it as aptly as ever). But maybe both Mad Men ladies will split the vote, as will The Good Wife gals, and pave the way for Rose Byrne to actually be recognized in what is arguably a lead role opposite Glenn Close in Damages.

Dark Horse: Christine Baranski (The Good Wife) if they do really love that show, and well, Baranski is great as always.

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series

• Glee • Wheels • Mike O’Malley as Burt Hummel
• Glee • Dream On • FOX • Neil Patrick Harris as Bryan Ryan
• Modern Family • Travels With Scout • Fred Willard as Frank Dunphy
• Nurse Jackie • Chicken Soup • Eli Wallach as Bernard Zimberg
• 30 Rock • Emmanuelle Goes To Dinosaur Land • NBC • Jon Hamm as Dr. Drew Baird
• 30 Rock • Into The Crevasse • NBC • Will Arnett as Devin Banks

Great category overall. I'm giving it to Wallach as this category usually works as a "career" award and clearly shows what the mean age of the voting body is. If it doesn't go to Wallach, I'm hoping they'll finally reward Arnett for his devilish character, but I can see this one going to any of the nominees (perhaps not Hamm since he's only in... what: 2 minutes of the episode in question?)

Dark Horse: NPH (Glee) if they decide to reward him here and not where he deserves it more. (Which would be fine as Joss will have technically nabbed him an Emmy basically)

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Drama Series

• The Closer • Make Over • TNT • Beau Bridges as Detective George Andrews
• Damages • The Next One’s Gonna Go In Your Throat • Danson as Arthur Frobisher
• Dexter • Road Kill • Showtime • John Lithgow as Arthur Mitchell
• The Good Wife • Fleas • CBS • Alan Cumming as Eli Gold
• The Good Wife • Bad • CBS • Dylan Baker as Colin Sweeney
• Mad Men • Shut The Door. Have A Seat. • AMC • Robert Morse as Bertram Cooper
• 24 • 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM • FOX • Gregory Itzin as President Charles Logan

Never bet against John Lithgow at the Emmys. Also: never bet against Ted Danson at the Emmys.

Dark Horse: Robert Morse (Mad Men)

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Comedy Series

• The Big Bang Theory • The Maternal Congruence • CBS • Christine Baranski as Beverly Hofstadter
• Desperate Housewives • The Chase • ABC • Kathryn Joosten as Karen McCluskey
• Glee • The Rhodes Not Taken • FOX • Kristin Chenoweth as April Rhodes
• Saturday Night Live • Host: Tina Fey • NBC • Tina Fey as Host
• Saturday Night Live • Host: Betty White • NBC • Betty White as Host
• 30 Rock • The Moms • NBC • Stritch as Colleen Donaghy
• Two And A Half Men • 818-JKLPUZO • CBS • Jane Lynch as Dr. Linda Freeman

It's the SNL battle of the year, will Betty crush Tina or will Tina-Palin win yet again?

Dark Horse: Kathryn Joosten (Desperate Housewives)/ Elaine Stritch (30 Rock) if the category skews older as per usual.

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series

• Big Love • The Might And The Strong • HBO • Mary Kay Place as Adaleen Grant
• Big Love • End Of Days • HBO • Sissy Spacek as Marilyn Densham
• The Cleaner • Does Everybody Have A Drink? • A&E • Shirley Jones as Lola Zellman
• Damages • Your Secrets Are Safe • FX Networks • Lily Tomlin as Marilyn Tobin
• Law & Order: Special Victims Unit • Bedtime • NBC • Ann-Margret as Rita Wills
• Lost • The End • ABC • Elizabeth Mitchell as Juliet Burke

Voting blind here. But an Oscar never hurts your chances at the Emmys (sadly, the same does not work the other way around unless your name is Helen Hunt)

Dark Horse: Anyone's guess...

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

• Glee • Pilot – Director’s Cut • FOX • Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, Ian Brennan
  
• Modern Family • Pilot • ABC • Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd
  
• The Office • Niagara • NBC • Greg Daniels, Mindy Kaling
  
• 30 Rock • Anna Howard Shaw Day • NBC • Matt Hubbard
• 30 Rock • Lee Marvin Vs. Derek Jeter • NBC • Tina Fey, Kay Cannon
  

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

• Friday Night Lights • The Son • Rolin Jones
  
• The Good Wife • Pilot • Michelle King, Robert King
  
• Lost • The End • ABC • Damon Lindelof, Carlton Cuse
  
• Mad Men • Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency • AMC • Robin Veith, Matthew Weiner
• Mad Men • Shut The Door. Have A Seat. • AMC • Matthew Weiner, Writer, Erin Levy, Writer

Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series

• Glee • Pilot – Director’s Cut • FOX • Ryan Murphy
  
• Glee • Wheels • FOX • Paris Barclay
  
• Modern Family • Pilot • ABC • Jason Winer
  
• Nurse Jackie • Pilot • Showtime • Allen Coulter
  
• 30 Rock • I Do Do • NBC • Don Scardino
  

Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series

• Breaking Bad • One Minute • AMC • Michelle MacLaren
• Dexter • The Getaway • Showtime • Steve Shill
• Lost • The End • ABC • Jack Bender
• Mad Men • Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency • AMC • Lesli Linka Glatter
• Treme • Do You Know What It Means (Pilot) • HBO • Agnieszka Holland