Oscar Predictions, or How why not, right? [UPDATED]

Trust the Academy Award nominations to get me to blog more; and why not? I'm very excited about tomorrow's announcement -- not least because I'll finally be able to start planning my annual cupcake Oscar bash. I have plenty of ideas of how to decorate a Life of Pi cupcake (blue frosting, orange life-saver), but if my predictions are anything to go by (they're not) I'll have to get creative. How does one distil the cruel humane streak of Amour or the obsessive documentary nature of Zero Dark Thirty into a cupcake delicacy?

[UPDATED WITH ACTUAL NOMINATIONS]
So Bigelow and Affleck both missed out on Best Director citations (despite Zero Dark Thirty and Argo having a good showing in some key tech categories, though ZD30 missing out on Cinematography is telling, I guess). Lincoln led the pack, as we presumed and Kidman, Perks, Hawkes, Cotillard and others were left out in the cold. You win some and you lose some in this game, no? Still, it would have been great for Bigelow to break the record by being the sole female director to get a second nominations but alas.

It definitely shakes things up as we head into the next phase of voting: is it going to be a Lincoln-fest, or is the strength of Playbook (scoring in all four categories -- the first since Reds (1981)) and Life of Pi (both films also scoring in the telling Editing category) enough to warrant a horse-race? Or can Zero or Argo overcome the no-director bid to score the big win and be the first film to do so since Driving Miss Daisy? Interesting things to ponder, though I do worry that we went from a totally unpredictable race to one that seems to have left Lincoln in a position to take it all. We'll see.

As for my predictions, I scored a 64/87 which I guess isn't bad (74%) though the fact that I stayed away from harder categories (Song, Shorts, etc.) probably helped. 

As they stand, my predictions suggest that the presumptive leader will be Lincoln (with what I'm thinking is a plausible 12 nominations) with Life of Pi (7), Argo (7) and Les Miserables (6) right behind it (though these don't factor in Song -- as who the hell knows with that category -- which could give the Ang Lee fable and the in-your-face musical an extra nomination each). The numbers don't quite feel right but I shuffled things around and that's where they left me. Acting-wise, I'm hoping Kidman's GG-SAG translates into a nomination while I'm banking on DiCaprio to break the "former winner" Supporting Actor club (which might still happen should Bardem or Waltz get in over Leo). I'm hoping Les Miserables misses Best Director while giving the edge to Haneke (it's also plausible we'd get our first lone director nom though what's more likely is that the French gem gets shut out of both but I'm hopeful!). As for the out-of-the-blue nominations that always surprise us... I couldn't find one unless you count my WGA-approved Looper/Perks of Being a Wallflower duo. Will there be an Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close nomination (maybe Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)? Will Skyfall crack the top categories? Will Django be more of an Inglorious Basterds or a Kill Bill situation? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

BEST PICTURE [8/9]
Amour
Argo
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
alt. The Master

BEST DIRECTOR [3/5]
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
alt. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

BEST ACTOR [4/5]
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
alt. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST ACTRESS [4/5]
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
alt. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR [4/5]
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
alt. Javier Bardem, Skyfall

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS [3/5]
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
alt. Amy Adams, The Master

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY [4/5]
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Looper
Zero Dark Thirty
Flight
alt. Amour

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY [4/5]
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook
alt. Life of Pi

BEST EDITING [4/5]
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
alt. Skyfall

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY [4/5]
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
alt. Argo

BEST SCORE [4/5]
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Skyfall
alt. Cloud Atlas

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN [2/5]
Anna Karenina
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
The Master
Prometheus
alt. Django Unchained

BEST COSTUME DESIGN [5/5]
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
alt. Django Unchained

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING [1/3]
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Men in Black III
Les Miserables
alt. Hitchcock

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS [4/5]
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
alt. Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST SOUND EDITING [3/5]
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
alt. Life of Pi

BEST SOUND MIXING [3/5]
The Avengers
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Lincoln
alt. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey